基于“3060”目标的中国钢铁行业二氧化碳减排路径与潜力分析

doi:10.13228/j.boyuan.issn0449-749x.20210465

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摘要中国钢产量占世界总产量的56.7%,CO₂排放占世界钢铁总排放的72.5%,占全国碳排放的15%。为实现“3060”目标,对国内外钢铁行业现状、减碳路径与潜力进行了分析,探讨了短流程、能源结构调整和余能利用对碳减排的贡献度及碳税对减碳的影响。进出口方面,中国2020年钢铁出口量占世界总出口量的12.8%,占中国钢铁产量的4.8%,以满足内需为主,适当增加废钢进口量可减少碳税,同时降低中国对铁矿石的依赖度,提高中国在原材料市场的议价权;当短流程占比提高至30%时,预计每年减碳3.8亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为2.09%,减少碳税152亿美元;采取70%废钢+30%DRI电炉炼钢流程时,可实现碳减排0.7亿t,对2030年的减碳贡献达0.39%,减少28亿美元碳税。实施氧气高炉技术、氢能冶炼技术及CCUS技术,可减碳49.55亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为24.6%,减少碳税1 982亿美元。其中,氢能冶炼减碳效果最显著,可减碳42.63亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为20.79%,减少碳税1 705.2亿美元,其次为氧气高炉,可减碳3.42亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为1.88%,减少碳税136.8亿美元。若高品位余能全部得到有效利用,预计可减碳1.39亿~1.4亿t,对2030年减碳贡献率为0.77%,减少碳税55.84亿美元。当低品位余能利用率从30%提高至50%时,预计减碳0.66亿t,贡献率为0.36%,减少碳税26.4亿美元。为实现“3060”目标,中国钢铁行业短期内可提高短流程覆盖率,同时加速研发氧气高炉、氢能冶炼、储能、余能梯级利用等减碳新技术。

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	赵紫薇
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	解雅茹
	王立

关键词 ：钢铁工业, 节能技术, 二氧化碳减排, 余热回收, 短流程, 能源供应

Abstract：China′s steel production accounts for 56.7% of the world′s total output,CO₂ emissions account for 72.5% of the world's total steel emissions and 15% of national carbon emissions. To achieve the target of "3060",this paper analyzed the current situation of steel industries at home and abroad,as well as their emission reduction path and potential. Further,it discussed the impact of short process,energy structure adjustment,waste energy utilization and carbon tax on emission reduction. In terms of import and export,China′s steel exports in 2020 accounted for 12.8% of the world′s total exports,while accounted for 4.8% of China′s steel production,indicating that China′s steel production was mainly to meet the domestic demand. Increasing the amount of scrap steel imports appropriately can reduce the burden of carbon tax and China′s dependence on iron ore,and enhance the country′s bargaining power in the raw material market. When the proportion of short process rises to 30%,it is expected to reduce carbon emissions by 380 million tons per year,contributing 2.09% to the 2030 target and reducing USD 152 billion of carbon tax. When the EAF(Electric Arc Furnace) process of 70% scrap steel +30% DRI(Direct Reduced Iron) is adopted,a total carbon reduction of 70 million tons can be achieved,contributing 0.39% to 2030 target emissions reduction and achieving carbon tax savings of USD 2.8 billion. Implementation of oxygen blast furnace,hydrogen metallurgy and CCUS(Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage) technologies can project to achieve carbon reduction of 4.955 billion tons,with a contribution rate of 24.6% to carbon reduction of year 2030 and a carbon tax reduction of USD 198.2 billion. Among them,hydrogen metallurgy has the most significant effect,which can take away 4.263 billion tons of carbon,contributing 20.79% to carbon reduction of year 2030 and USD 170.52 billion carbon tax reduction. And it is followed by oxygen blast furnace,which can take away 342 million tons of carbon,contributing 1.88% to carbon reduction of year 2030,and USD 13.68 billion carbon tax reduction. If all of the high-grade residual energy is effectively utilized,139-140 million tons of carbon reduction is predicted to be achieved,making a contribution of 0.77% to carbon reduction to year 2030 and USD 5.584 billion less of carbon tax. When the utilization rate of low-grade residual energy grows from 30% to 50%,66 million tons of carbon reduction is predict to be achieved,making a contribution of 0.36% to carbon reduction to year 2030 and USD 2.64 billion less of carbon tax. Therefore,to better realize the goal of "3060",China′s steel industry can improve the coverage of short process in the short term,while accelerating the R&D of new carbon reduction technologies such as oxygen blast furnace,hydrogen metallurgy,energy storage,and cascade utilization of residual energy.

Key words： iron and steel industry energy saving technology CO₂ emission reduction waste heat recovery short process energy supply

收稿日期: 2021-08-11

引用本文:

赵紫薇, 孔福林, 童莉葛, 尹少武, 解雅茹, 王立. 基于“3060”目标的中国钢铁行业二氧化碳减排路径与潜力分析[J]. 钢铁, 2022, 57(2): 162-174. ZHAO Zi-wei, KONG Fu-lin, TONG Li-ge, YIN Shao-wu, XIE Ya-ru, WANG Li. Analysis of CO₂ emission reduction path and potential of China′s steel industry under the "3060" target[J]. Iron and Steel, 2022, 57(2): 162-174.

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