Analysis and prediction of scrap resources in China from 2022 to 2060
CUI Zhifeng1, SHANGGUAN Fangqin2, WANG Fangjie3, ZHOU Jicheng2, XU Anjun1
1. School of Metallurgical and Ecological Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China; 2. Steel Industry Green and Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Center, China Iron and Steel Research Institute Group, Beijing 100081, China; 3. China Association of Metal Scrap Utilization, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract：The steel industry in China has reached a critical period of transformation and upgrading. Scrap steel recycling has great potential for reducing carbon emissions. It is an important tool for the green development of the steel industry and the realization of the "double carbon" goal. A scientific and reasonable forecast of future steel scrap resources is of great significance for the steel industry to carry out the double carbon work in an orderly manner and optimize the production process structure. Combined with the relevant policies promulgated by the state in recent years and the development situation of the steel industry in the future,China′s future crude steel production,import and export steel volume,various scrap steel recovery rates and the service life of steel products are discussed in three scenarios. On this basis,the calculation and prediction of China′s steel scrap resources from 2022 to 2060 are carried out using the steel product life cycle method. The research results show that in the next 22 years,China′s steel scrap resources will show a rapid growth trend. It is estimated that by 2030,China′s average annual steel scrap resources will exceed 300 million tons,in 2035 it will exceed 400 million tons,and reach a peak of 500 million tons in 2045,when China′s scrap steel resources will be sufficient or even slightly surplus,and the current shortage situation will be completely changed. From then until 2060,China′s scrap steel resources will slowly decline year by year and tend to be stable. Based on this,it is inferred that sufficient scrap resources in the future will lead to changes in the composition of ferrite resources in China′s iron and steel industry,and the demand for international iron ore resources will drop sharply. Meanwhile,scrap resources will also provide resource guarantee for the development of the short process of all-scrap electric furnaces. The layout mode of new iron and steel enterprises represented by "urban steel mills" will become the mainstream development trend in the future and provide strong support for the low-carbon and high-quality development of the iron and steel industry.
崔志峰, 上官方钦, 王方杰, 周继程, 徐安军. 2022—2060年中国废钢资源量分析预测[J]. 钢铁, 2023, 58(6): 126-133.
CUI Zhifeng, SHANGGUAN Fangqin, WANG Fangjie, ZHOU Jicheng, XU Anjun. Analysis and prediction of scrap resources in China from 2022 to 2060[J]. Iron and Steel, 2023, 58(6): 126-133.
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2023, Vol. 58 
