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高炉铁水硅含量参数滞后性分析及在线预测

Lag time analysis of operating parameters and online prediction for silicon content of hot metal in blast furnace

  • 摘要: 以高炉铁水硅含量在线预测模型开发为背景,对操作参数影响铁水硅含量的滞后时间进行了相关性研究,提出一种基于长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory, LSTM)的铁水硅含量在线预测模型.首先,根据生产机理与硅的迁移规律,分析各参数在炉内的滞后行为;其次,构建不同滞后时间下硅含量影响参数的数据库,通过分析不同滞后时间下各参数与硅含量的关联度大小,确定其准确的滞后时间;最后,基于某钢厂4号高炉连续生产60 d的数据(合计16 131组样本),利用数据预处理和特征值筛选等方式,选取了10个关联度较好的工艺参数进行预测建模,并采用LSTM算法构建了铁水硅含量当前时刻、1 h后和2 h后的在线预测模型.结果表明:该在线模型具备良好的泛化能力、鲁棒性与预测精度;其中,当前时刻硅含量预测值与实测值的误差控制在±0.05%以内的准确率达94.6%.

     

    Abstract: Based on the development of an online prediction model for the silicon content in blast furnace hot metal, this paper investigates the correlation between the lag time of operating parameters and silicon content in blast furnace hot metal, and proposes an online prediction model for silicon content in blast furnace hot metal based on long short-term memory(LSTM) networks. First, based on the production mechanism and the migration pattern of silicon, the lagging behavior of various parameters within the furnace is analyzed. Next, a database of silicon-influencing parameters with different lag times is constructed, allowing the determination of accurate lag times by analyzing the correlation strength between each parameter and silicon content across different lag times. Finally, based on data from 60 days of continuous production at a steel plant′s No. 4 blast furnace(a total of 16 131 samples), 10 operational parameters with high correlation are selected for predictive modeling through data preprocessing and feature selection. The LSTM-based online prediction model is designed to predict the silicon content in hot metal for the current time, 1 hour ahead, and 2 hours ahead. Results indicate that the online model demonstrates robust generalization ability, robustness, and accuracy, achieving a prediction accuracy rate of 94.6% within a 0.05% error range between predicted and actual silicon content values at the current time.

     

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