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基于BiGRU-Attention模型的烧结矿FeO含量预测

Prediction of FeO content in sinter based on BiGRU-Attention model

  • 摘要: FeO含量是影响烧结矿强度及冶金性能的重要指标,因此,准确预测烧结矿FeO含量有助于稳定烧结质量,保障高炉炼铁顺行。作为典型的时序性生产,基于循环神经网络的FeO含量预测方法已得到广泛应用。然而,传统循环神经网络及其变体在处理长序列时会面临信息稀释的问题,与序列端口相距较远的信息对最终的输出影响较弱。因此,本文构建BiGRU-Attention模型,通过分析现场数据特点,采用孤立森林监测异常值并剔除,采用缺失森林插补模型填补缺失值,最后进行数据转换,提升模型输入数据的质量。此外,采用递归特征消除算法进行特征降维,减少模型负载。通过构建双向门控循环单元,并行处理前向和后向时间序列,捕捉烧结过程长程时序依赖,实现了对时间序列全局上下文信息的完整建模,并引入注意力机制动态聚焦关键阶段,通过注意力层的查询(Query)矩阵、键(Key)矩阵与值(Value)矩阵计算各部分的重要性,自适应地为输入数据分配权重,生成更加相关的上下文矩阵,优化资源分配,提升模型在复杂时序数据上的预测精度。结果表明,与GRU、BiGRU模型相比,BiGRU-Attention模型能够更好地理解烧结特征之间的内在关联,该模型在测试集上表现出更高的预测准确性和灵活性,平均绝对误差MAE=0.033 7,均方根误差RMSE=0.103 6,平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=4.054%,决定系数R²=0.893 5,BiGRU-Attention模型的预测结果与真实值高度一致。同时,为了测试模型的工业应用价值,通过加入滑动窗口与掩码的方式,引入不同水平的随机噪声进行模型的训练和预测,验证了该方法在提前把控烧结矿FeO成分趋势变化上的鲁棒性与应用潜力。

     

    Abstract: The FeO content is an important indicator affecting the strength and metallurgical performance of sintered ore. Therefore, accurately predicting the FeO content of sintered ore is helpful for stabilizing the sintering quality and ensuring the smooth operation of the blast furnace ironmaking process. As a typical sequential production, the FeO content prediction method based on recurrent neural networks has been widely applied. However, traditional recurrent neural networks and their variants face the problem of information dilution when dealing with long sequences, and the information from distant sequence ends has a relatively weak impact on the final output. Therefore, this paper constructed the BiGRU-Attention model. By analyzing the characteristics of on-site data, it used the isolation forest to monitor outliers and eliminate them, the missing forest interpolation model to fill in the missing values, and finally performed data transformation to improve the quality of the input data of the model. In addition, the recursive feature elimination algorithm was used for feature reduction, reducing the model load. By constructing a bidirectional gated recurrent unit and processing the forward and backward time series in parallel, the long-term temporal dependencies in the sintering process are captured, achieving the complete modeling of the global context information of the time series. An attention mechanism was introduced to dynamically focus on key stages. Through the Query matrix,Key matrix and Value matrix of the attention layer, the importance of each part was calculated, adaptively allocating weights for the input data, generating a more relevant context matrix, optimizing resource allocation, and improving the prediction accuracy of the model on complex time series data. The results show that compared with GRU and BiGRU models, the BiGRU-Attention model can better understand the intrinsic correlations between sintering features. This model shows higher prediction accuracy and flexibility on the test set, with MAE = 0.033 7, RMSE = 0.103 6, MAPE=4.054%, R²=0.893 5. The prediction results of the BiGRU-Attention model are highly consistent with the true values. Furthermore, in order to test the industrial application value of the model, by incorporating sliding windows and masks, and introducing different levels of random noise during the training and prediction of the model, the robustness and application potential of this method in accurately controlling the trend changes of FeO content in sintered ore were verified.

     

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