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绿色钢铁转型的困境与重塑

Dilemmas and reshaping of green steel transition

  • 摘要: 在全球碳中和背景下,以氢基直接还原铁(direct reduction iron, DRI)为核心的“绿铁”生产被视为钢铁工业脱碳的重要路径。然而,作为转型先锋的欧盟,其DRI项目建设却出现普遍推迟与“两极分化”的困境,其他国家也遇到一些困惑。本文基于欧盟和多国的DRI项目实践,从能源结构、技术路线、产业生态与全球贸易的系统性重塑等维度展开分析,指出欧洲该项目的推迟是“成本-需求”剪刀差、能源系统转型速度滞后于工业脱碳需求、政策工具失灵、内部路径依赖与全球竞争压力等多重系统性障碍共振的结果。进一步分析提出,“绿铁”的实现面临技术成熟度、经济性、标准缺失与供应链重构等共性挑战,其发展必然要经历漫长的技术-市场-政策协同演进的过渡期。基于此,文章构建了一个涵盖技术经济、产业生态与地缘贸易的多维分析框架,并深入探讨了中国在全球“绿铁”体系构建中的战略框架,指出中国需摒弃碎片化投资模式,实施“国内外双循环”联动的组合策略。国内层面,应以可再生能源富集区为基地,推进“绿电-制氢-冶金”一体化示范与规模化,夯实技术根基;国际层面,则应通过资源与市场双布局,获取要素禀赋优势。最终,中国应将外部碳壁垒压力转化为内部系统性改革与产业链升级的动力,力争成为全球“绿铁”技术创新的重要贡献者、供应链的核心组织者以及规则制定的关键参与者。

     

    Abstract: In the context of global carbon neutrality, the production of "green iron", centered around hydrogen-based direct reduction iron (DRI), is regarded as a crucial path for the decarbonization of the steel industry. However, in the European Union, a pioneer in this transition, the construction of DRI projects has been widely delayed and marked by a "polarized" dilemma, while other countries have also encountered various challenges. Based on the practices of DRI projects in the EU and multiple other nations, this article conducts an analysis from the perspectives of energy structure, technological pathways, industrial ecosystems, and the systemic reshaping of global trade. It is pointed out that the delays in Europe are the result of multiple systemic barriers, including the "cost-demand" scissors gap, the lag in energy system transformation behind industrial decarbonization needs, policy tool failures, internal path dependence, and global competitive pressures. Further analysis suggests that the realization of "green iron" faces common challenges such as technological maturity, economic feasibility, the absence of standards, and supply chain restructuring. Its development is inevitably bound to undergo a prolonged transition period characterized by the co-evolution of technology, market, and policy. Based on this, a multidimensional analytical framework encompassing technology economy, industrial ecology, and geopolitical trade is constructed. The strategic framework for China's role in the global "green iron" system is explored in depth. It is pointed out that China needs to abandon fragmented investment models and implement a combined strategy of "dual circulation domestically and internationally". At the domestic level, renewable energy-rich regions should be used as bases to promote the integrated demonstration and scaling of "green power-hydrogen production-metallurgy," thereby solidifying the technological foundation. At the international level, resource and market dual layouts should be leveraged to acquire factor endowments. Ultimately, China should transform external carbon barrier pressures into internal momentum for systemic reform and industrial chain upgrading, striving to become a key contributor to global "green iron" technological innovation, a core organizer of the supply chain, and a crucial participant in rule-setting.

     

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