基于RFE-SVR的RH精炼终点C含量预测
Prediction of end-point carbon content in RH refining based on RFE-SVR
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摘要: RH精炼是钢铁冶炼工艺中的关键环节,终点C元素含量是影响钢铁性能的重要指标。准确预测RH精炼终点C元素含量,对于优化工艺控制、保证成品质量具有重要意义。为了精确预测终点C元素含量,本文采用基于递归特征消除(RFE)的随机森林(RF)、线性回归(LR)、支持向量回归(SVR)及极端梯度提升树(XGBoost)算法构建模型。在选定训练模型所用的特征变量时,与传统的热力图方法不同,提出了动态范围策略,即预设特征数量的合理区间,通过网格搜索模型的超参数对该区间内每个模型进行评估,选取其中表现最优的模型,避免单一特征数量的局限性。102组现场生产数据验证模型的结果显示,基于SVR算法并通过RFE选取的18个特征变量训练而成的模型,在预测RH精炼终点C元素含量时效果最好,其平均绝对误差为1.427×10-6、均方误差为6.626×10-10,在精度要求为±5×10-6的情况下,预测命中率达到了93.5%。Abstract: RH refining constitutes a critical procedure in steelmaking processes. The end-point carbon content serves as a vital indicator affecting steel properties. Accurate prediction of end-point carbon content in RH refining is of great significance for optimizing process control and guaranteeing finished product quality. To precisely predict the end-point carbon content, models are established by random forest (RF), linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithms combined with recursive feature elimination (RFE). In the selection of feature variables for model training, different from the conventional heatmap method, a dynamic range strategy is proposed. A reasonable interval for the preset number of features is defined, each model within this interval is evaluated through grid search of model hyperparameters, and the model with optimal performance is selected to avoid limitations brought by a single feature quantity. Verification results based on 102 sets of on-site production data demonstrate that the model trained by the SVR algorithm with 18 feature variables screened via RFE achieves the optimal performance in predicting end-point carbon content during RH refining. The mean absolute error and mean squared error reach 1.427×10-6 and 6.626×10-10, respectively. A prediction hit rate of 93.5% is obtained under the precision requirement of ±5×10-6.
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