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AHP-GIS耦合的天水市秦州区滑坡稳定性评价及治理

AHP-GIS-Coupled Landslide Stability Evaluation and Mitigation in Qinzhou District,Tianshui City

  • 摘要: 为科学评价天水市秦州区滑坡稳定性并制定有效治理策略,在分析区域地质地貌与滑坡发育特征的基础上,选取地质构造、灾害频率、坡度与坡度变化率、坡向与坡形变率、海拔高程、沟壑密度、植被指数、降雨量、地震和人类活动等10项指标,采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)确定指标权重,并结合GIS空间分析技术开展滑坡易发性、易损性与危险性综合评价。结果表明:秦州区滑坡以黄土滑坡和黄土—泥岩滑坡为主,共识别出高危险区5个、中危险区2个、低危险区3个;高危险区面积约1 163.1 km2,含隐患点158处,是防灾减灾重点区域。在此基础上,提出“管理先行、技术支撑、防治结合”的综合治理策略,对高危险区采用监测预警、排水减载、支挡加固与生态修复相结合的措施。选取太京—玉泉高危险亚区典型边坡开展为期6个月的深部位移监测,5个测斜孔累计位移为12.4~30.6 mm,均低于50 mm预警值,坡体变形协调、整体稳定。研究表明,该治理策略技术可行、实用性强,可为秦州区及类似地区滑坡风险防控与国土空间规划提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: To scientifically evaluate landslide stability and formulate effective mitigation strategies, this study takes Qinzhou District,Tianshui City as the research object. Based on the analysis of regional geomorphology and landslide development characteristics,ten indicators:geological structure,disaster frequency,slope gradient and gradient change rate,slope aspect and shape change rate,elevation,gully density,vegetation index,rainfall,earthquake,and human activity were selected.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) was used to determine their weights,and GIS spatial analysis was combined to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of landslide susceptibility,vulnerability,and hazard. The results show that landslides in Qinzhou District are dominated by loess landslides and loess-mudstone landslides. Five high-hazard zones,two medium-hazard zones,and three low-hazard zones were identified. The high-hazard zones cover about 1,163. 1 km2,contain 158 hidden danger points,making them key areas for disaster prevention and mitigation. On this basis,a comprehensive mitigation strategy featuring " management first,technical support,and combined prevention and control" was proposed. In high-hazard zones,measures combining monitoring and early warning,drainage and load reduction,retaining reinforcement,and ecological restoration were adopted. A typical slope in the Taijing-Yuquan high-hazard subzone was selected for six-month deep displacement monitoring.The cumulative displacements of five inclinometer holes ranged from 12. 4 mm to 30. 6 mm,all below the 50 mm early-warning threshold,indicating coordinated deformation and overall stability of the slope. The study demonstrates that the proposed mitigation strategy is technically feasible and practical,and can provide a scientific basis for landslide risk control and territorial spatial planning in Qinzhou District and similar areas.

     

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