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基于Stacking集成学习的热连轧厚度数据驱动建模

Data-driven modeling of hot continuous rolling thickness based on stacking ensemble learning

  • 摘要: 针对热连轧规格切换和停轧换辊等非稳态轧制过程厚度控制精度低的问题,本文建立了一种基于Stacking集成学习的热连轧规格切换过程厚度数据驱动模型,通过贝叶斯优化算法确定了基学习器与元学习器的最优超参数配置,并将Stacking模型与其他主流模型进行了对比分析。同时,引入SHAP方法对Stacking模型进行解释分析,评估输入特征变量的重要性。研究结果表明,所构建的Stacking模型能够有效融合基学习器的预测结果,显著提升了厚度预测精度。所建立的Stacking模型的性能评价指标中,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.019 9,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.014 9,决定拟合系数(R2)为0.999 9。模型预测厚度与实际厚度的误差控制在±35μm以内的概率达到94.8%,控制在±50μm以内的概率达到97.8%,实现了对热连轧规格切换过程厚度的高精度控制。

     

    Abstract: To address the issue of low thickness control accuracy during non-steady-state rolling processes, such as specification switching and roll change in hot continuous rolling, this paper proposes a data-driven model based on Stacking ensemble learning for thickness prediction during specification switching. The optimal hyperparameter configurations of both the base learners and the meta-learner are determined using a Bayesian optimization algorithm. The performance of the Stacking model is systematically compared with that of other mainstream models. Additionally, the SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations) method is introduced to interpret the Stacking model and evaluate the importance of input features. The results demonstrate that the proposed Stacking model effectively integrates the predictions of base learners, significantly enhancing the accuracy of thickness prediction. The performance evaluation metrics of the developed Stacking model are as follows: root mean squared error(RMSE) of 0.019 9, mean absolute error(MAE) of 0.014 9, and coefficient of determination(R2) of 0.999 9. The probability that the error between the predicted and actual thickness is within ±35 μm reaches 94.8%, while the probability within ±50 μm is 97.8%, achieving high-precision thickness control during the specification switching process in hot continuous rolling.

     

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