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热轧中厚板轧后冷却终冷温度预测研究进展

Research progress on prediction of final cooling temperature for hot-rolled medium plate cooling after rolling

  • 摘要: 中厚板轧后冷却终冷温度控制是提升产品质量与生产效率的核心技术,其温度命中率的精准预测与调控备受学术界与工业界关注。早期研究以数学解析模型为主导,基于传热学理论构建牛顿冷却定律修正模型,虽计算效率高,但对复杂工况的适应性有限。随着计算机技术的发展,有限差分法(FDM)与有限元法(FEM)被广泛应用于温度场仿真,通过离散化处理提升了预测精度,但其依赖大量实验数据校准参数且计算成本高昂。近年来,机器学习模型凭借强大的非线性映射能力成为研究热点,BP神经网络、XGBoost模型等算法在终冷温度命中率预测中展现出显著优势。针对模型优化,学者提出超参数自适应调优等创新方法,通过融合机理与数据驱动策略,有效解决了工业数据噪声敏感性与泛化能力不足的瓶颈问题。尽管机器学习技术已在工业生产领域凸显应用价值,但钢铁行业作为典型的传统复杂工业领域,其生产流程具有多环节耦合、动态性强的特征,这导致机器学习技术的引入与落地面临多重适配难题,进一步制约了技术的规模化应用。未来研究需聚焦多模态耦合建模、低碳目标下的节能型冷却工艺优化,以及可解释性人工智能在工业决策中的应用,从而推动热轧冷却控制向智能化、绿色化方向跨越发展。

     

    Abstract: The control of the final cooling temperature after medium plate rolling is a core technology for improving product quality and production efficiency. The accurate prediction and regulation of the temperature hit rate have attracted much attention from both the academic and industrial communities. Early research was dominated by mathematical analytical models, which constructed modified Newton′s cooling law models based on heat transfer theory. Although these models had high computational efficiency, their adaptability to complex working conditions was limited. With the development of computer technology, the finite difference method (FDM) and the finite element method (FEM) have been widely applied in temperature field simulation, enhancing prediction accuracy through discretization. However, they rely on a large amount of experimental data for parameter calibration and have high computational costs. In recent years, machine learning models, with their strong nonlinear mapping capabilities, have become a research hotspot. Algorithms such as BP neural networks and XGBoost models have shown significant advantages in predicting the final cooling temperature hit rate. For model optimization, scholars have proposed innovative methods such as adaptive tuning of hyperparameters. By integrating mechanism-based and data-driven strategies, these methods effectively address the bottlenecks of industrial data noise sensitivity and insufficient generalization ability.Although machine learning technologies have demonstrated significant application value in industrial production, the steel industry—as a quintessential traditional complex industrial sector—features production processes characterized by multi-stage coupling and high dynamism.This results in multiple adaptation challenges when introducing and implementing machine learning technologies, further constraining their large-scale application. Future research should focus on multi-modal coupling modeling, energy-saving cooling process optimization under low-carbon targets, and the application of explainable artificial intelligence in industrial decision-making, thereby promoting the leapfrog development of hot rolling cooling control towards intelligence and greenness.

     

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