基于机器学习的钢管力学性能预测与控冷工艺优化研究
Machine learning-based prediction of mechanical properties and optimization of controlled cooling process for steel pipes
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摘要: 针对现有钢管控冷工艺参数经验设计精度不足、难以兼顾高强高韧的难题,本文提出一种融合机器学习与贝叶斯多目标优化的智能化方法。首先,利用高斯噪声对收集的控冷参数实验数据进行增强,缓解因样本规模有限导致的过拟合风险,并应用主成分分析对线性冗余特征进行降维,确保累计方差贡献率达到 95%。基于XGBoost算法构建了钢管力学性能预测模型,该模型具备高精度预测能力,其决定系数为0.96,关键力学性能的平均绝对百分比误差均小于3%。为验证力学性能预测模型的准确性,通过试制J55油套管样品并对其进行拉伸实验,样品力学性能数据与模型预测值的相对误差最大为3.14%。随后,通过贝叶斯多目标优化模型成功寻优出多组高性能控冷工艺参数组合,最优解的抗拉强度高达927 MPa,且优化结果的力学性能指标均符合API SPEC 5CT标准。为检验贝叶斯优化算法的实际效果,依据优化后的控冷工艺参数制备J55油套管,并对其力学性能进行测试,实验结果与模型预测值的最大相对误差为1.84%。研究结果表明,本文提出的算法可实现钢管性能的精准预测与高效工艺寻优,为钢管智能制造提供了可行方案。Abstract: To address the challenges of insufficient precision in the empirical design of controlled cooling process parameters for steel pipes and the difficulty in balancing high strength and high toughness, this paper proposes an intelligent method integrating machine learning and Bayesian multi-objective optimization. Firstly, Gaussian noise is utilized to augment the collected experimental data of controlled cooling parameters, mitigating the risk of overfitting caused by a limited sample size. Principal component analysis (PCA) is then applied to reduce the dimensionality of linearly redundant features, ensuring a cumulative variance contribution rate of 95%. A mechanical property prediction model for steel pipes is constructed based on the XGBoost algorithm. This model exhibits high-precision predictive capabilities, with a coefficient of determination of 0.96 and a mean absolute percentage error of less than 3% for key mechanical properties. To verify the accuracy of the prediction model, J55 oil casing pipe samples were trial-produced and subjected to tensile testing. The maximum relative error between the experimental mechanical property data and the model's predicted values is 3.14%. Subsequently, multiple sets of high-performance controlled cooling process parameters combinations were successfully identified through the Bayesian multi-objective optimization model. The tensile strength of the optimal solution reaches up to 927 MPa, and the mechanical property indicators of the optimization results all comply with the API SPEC 5CT standard. To examine the practical effectiveness of the Bayesian optimization algorithm, J55 oil casings were manufactured according to the optimized process parameters, and their mechanical properties were tested. The maximum relative error between the experimental results and the model's predicted values is 1.84%. The research results indicate that the proposed algorithm can achieve accurate prediction of steel pipe performance and efficient process optimization, providing a feasible solution for the intelligent manufacturing of steel pipes.
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