Abstract: The changes of China's annual crude steel output, average daily crude steel production on a monthly basis over the past two years, end-of-month rebar prices, direct steel exports, indirect exports of steel products, and CO₂ emissions were reviewed and analyzed. It is concluded that China's crude steel production is generally in a situation of oversupply, and the steel industry has entered a downward phase of reduction fluctuations. Under the premise of no significant increase in crude steel output, China's steel industry can be considered to have entered a CO₂ emission stabilization period. The study explores targets and measures for total crude steel output control from perspectives including future production forecasts, supply-side structural reforms, and adjustments to import/export policies. By integrating projections of future crude steel output and scrap resources, it is proposed that under the goals of "Carbon peak and Carbon neutrality", China's steel industry will gradually develop three typical manufacturing processes: BF-BOF long process, full scrap EAF process, and hydrogen reduction-EAF process. The evolutionary alternation of these three processes is discussed, emphasizing that China's steel industry should leverage the "Carbon peak and Carbon neutrality" context to guide scrap resources toward EAF process, thereby gradually optimizing the sector's ferrous resource structure, product structure, and process structure. Pathways for enhancing manufacturing continuity are explored through interface technology optimization, dynamic precision design, and full-process intelligentization. Finally, through the construction and analysis of a "dual carbon" analytical model for the steel industry, the study identifies controlling and reducing crude steel output as the most effective decarbonization measure, with process structure optimization in steel plants being equally critical.