Roadmap and timetable for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China′s iron and steel industry
ZHANG Qi1,2,3, TIAN Shuoshuo1, SHEN Jialin1
1. State Environment Protection Key Laboratory of Eco-Industry, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, Liaoning, China; 2. Institute for Frontier Technologies of Low-Carbon Steelmaking, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, Liaoning, China; 3. Engineering Research Center of Frontier Technologies for Low-Carbon SteelmakingMinistry of Education, Shenyang 110819, Liaoning, China
Abstract：On September 22,2020,China announced at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that it aims to peak its carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The deep decarbonization of the steel industry is a necessary step to achieve these goals,as well as an important strategic measure for addressing climate change,alleviating energy crises,and promoting green and healthy development. Green and low-carbon development is the key to the transformation,upgrading,and high-quality development of the steel industry,as well as an important support for China′s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. An analysis was conducted on the current carbon emissions of China′s steel industry,followed by a comparison of the carbon neutrality goals and implementation paths of major steel-producing countries. Using dynamic material flow analysis methods,a steel demand model and a scrap recycling model were constructed,and China′s steel demand and scrap resources were predicted until 2060. The results indicated that China′s steel demand will decrease to 878 million tons and 543 million tons in 2030 and 2060,respectively. Domestic scrap production will be approximately 420 million tons in 2030,gradually decreasing after 2055 but remaining above 400 million tons. Based on the dynamic material flow analysis results and scenario analysis methods,a carbon emissions model for the steel industry was constructed,potential for energy conservation and emission reduction in the steel industry were analyzed,and a timetable and roadmap were formulated for China′s steel industry to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality based on the carbon neutrality path analysis model of the steel industry,pointing out that the Chinese steel industry will experience four stages before achieving carbon neutrality: fluctuations and control of crude steel production-carbon control,reduction of crude steel production-emission reduction,period of crude steel production at a low level plateau-low carbon,and stabilization of crude steel production at a low level-carbon neutrality,providing important guidance and action plans for China′s steel industry to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.
张琦, 田硕硕, 沈佳林. 中国钢铁行业碳达峰碳中和时间表与路线图[J]. 钢铁, 2023, 58(9): 59-68.
ZHANG Qi, TIAN Shuoshuo, SHEN Jialin. Roadmap and timetable for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China′s iron and steel industry[J]. Iron and Steel, 2023, 58(9): 59-68.
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2023, Vol. 58 
